December 12, 2022
Posted wage progress for US employees rose 6.5% 12 months over 12 months in November, after peaking at 9% in March, in keeping with the Certainly Wage Tracker.
Regardless of the decline from March, posted wage progress continues to be larger than the pre-pandemic fee of three.1% annual progress recorded in November 2019.
The Certainly Wage Tracker gauges the present state of the labor marketplace for firms wanting to rent new workers and will function a number one indicator of broader measures of wage progress, in keeping with Certainly.
“New information from the Certainly Wage Tracker signifies that wage progress is beginning to decelerate after a interval of speedy acceleration,” mentioned Nick Bunker, director of financial analysis at Certainly. “The overwhelming majority of job sectors had slower will increase in posted wages in November than they did six months prior.”
On its present trajectory, the Certainly Wage Tracker would return to its pre-pandemic tempo of three% to 4% year-over-year progress by the second half of 2023, in keeping with Bunker. “Our measure of wage progress has already peaked, however we’re within the early innings of this wage slowdown,” he mentioned.
The tracker additionally discovered the slowdown in wage progress is broad-based, with posted wage progress remaining regular or growing from Could 2022 to November 2022 in simply 18% of occupational classes. In distinction, 93% of occupational classes noticed regular or growing positive factors in the identical six-month interval in 2021.
Total, the information level to a discount in wage progress for job switchers, however it takes roughly three months for a slowdown in posted wage progress to trickle right down to job switcher wage progress. Based on Certainly, posted wage progress would possibly attain its pre-pandemic stage by the top of subsequent 12 months. Nonetheless, total wage progress, which trails positive factors for brand spanking new hires, could not normalize till effectively into 2024.
