December 05, 2022
The Convention Board’s Employment Developments Index declined in November to a studying of 117.65, down from October’s downwardly revised studying of 118.74, indicating slower job progress within the coming months.
“The Employment Developments Index decreased in November 2022 for the second consecutive month. Whereas the index stays at a excessive degree, its downward development alerts slower job progress forward,” stated Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Convention Board. “The labor market is at the moment nonetheless sturdy. Nonetheless, the fourth consecutive decline within the variety of momentary assist companies jobs — a part of the ETI and an vital main indicator for hiring — is a warning signal that job progress could sluggish going into 2023.”
But, Steemers additionally famous the demand for employees stays resilient and wage progress continues to be elevated.
“With the variety of staff quitting nonetheless excessive — and the labor provide nonetheless constrained — employers could proceed to supply sturdy pay will increase to their current employees and new hires over the approaching months,” he stated. “Nonetheless, with the economic system anticipated to sluggish additional in 2023 amid the Federal Reserve’s speedy rate of interest hikes, we count on the US labor market to chill and probably even file some month-to-month job losses.”
Nonetheless, labor shortages are unlikely to vanish altogether, with the unemployment price projected to rise from the present 3.7% to a still-low 4.5% in 2023, Steemers stated. Employers should still must handle recruitment and retention difficulties, in addition to rising labor prices, into the brand new 12 months and past.
